Some businessmen from Sindh fear that, under the PML-N’s rule, imbalances in the levels of development amongst regions and provinces may widen.
Punjab is already ahead of the rest. All social (education/health) and economic (provincial GDP growth rate, infrastructure and logistics) indicators confirm that in terms of quality of governance and the ease of doing business, the biggest province beats all the rest by a big margin.
“What I find more disturbing is that the development gap has persistently been widening over the past two decades, and it may actually become more pronounced under the Nawaz Sharif government,” a former president of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry raised a point while talking to Dawn.
He was discussing the possible geographical location of fresh investment, which he expected to materialise soon and gain pace by mid-2014.
“The capital will naturally gravitate towards sectors and locations that hold better promise and lesser risk. I had all my business in Karachi since the family moved here from Bombay after partition.
“However, about a decade back, I decided to move part of my business to Lahore. I am glad that I made that move, as it is easier and better there, though the head office of my group is still in Karachi,” he told this scribe in confidence.
“The regional disparity trend, if not dealt by the policymakers, would further alienate the people of the three minority provinces from the federation,” cautioned an analyst.
However, the provincial hierarchy of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) did not agree. For a different set of reasons, they projected an optimistic outlook and believed that the economies of the two troubled provinces may succeed in laying a long-delayed foundation to capitalise on their suppressed economic potential.
Some analysts feel that while the National Finance Commission (NFC) and the 18th Amendment have empowered provincial governments, so far they have not been able to fully use fiscal, legislative and administrative autonomy to the benefit of the provincial economies and their people.
“There are capacity bottlenecks in the smaller provinces that need to be addressed to plough in additional resources to build provincial economies,” he commented.
The government functionaries in Sindh’s economic ministries were too busy to spare time to share their opinion on the issue with the media.
“The election outcome in Balochistan has thrown up a new set of leadership. To me, it signals a new beginning. There is a realisation of the value of economic progress at the top, based on the development of indigenous resources,” commented Dostain Jamaldini, the provincial finance secretary, over phone from Quetta.
“Having said that, there is little denying the fact that the future of Balochistan is held hostage to how things shape up in Afghanistan — the single most important factor beyond the control of provincial policymakers,” he lamented.
“Still, there is a lot of visible interest from investors, particularly in mining, horticulture, tourism, livestock and the Gwadar Port. We are planning an investors’ conference over the next two months to make a case for our province, which is rich in natural resources,” he informed.
The government hierarchy in KP is also upbeat about the prospects of the provincial economy, which is currently in tatters. A senior officer hoped that the devolution of economic power may trigger development, as infrastructure projects are initiated for economic revival.
“The law and order situation is the bane of the provincial administration. The level of economic activity is directly related to an improvement in the security situation in the province,” said a senior member of the economic team of the province.
When his attention was drawn to an investors’ conference co-organised by the KP government in Karachi that failed to generate interest even in the local business community, his response sounded logical.
“Who would put a factory at a place where people are abandoning homes? Outside investors will follow if Pashtoon traders bring their capital back home and start investing in services and industry in their own province,” he commented from Peshawar over phone.
“Besides, it is impossible to secure bank lending for any project in KP, as private banks have put the province on their ‘red list’ (high risk). The government needs to look for options to facilitate prospective investors with favourable credit lines to promote development in KP,” he pointed out.
Some other businessmen felt it was too early to draw conclusions about the quality of growth and development during the tenure of the current government.
“The regional disparities will reduce under the business-friendly government of Nawaz Sharif,” said S.M. Munir, a senior business leader, as he expressed confidence in the country’s current leadership.
“It will probably take little longer for things to settle down. Under the current law and order environment and the volatility in the currency market, investors would like to hold on and commit at a more opportune time,” commented Sohail Ahmed, CEO of Topline Securities, when reached over phone.
The members of the federal kitchen cabinet could not be reached in Islamabad for their take, as many of them are accompanying the prime minister on his visit to the US.
